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India’s Security Concerns

Once the United States and NATO forces leave the Afghanistan– Pakistan region, the ongoing conflict in the region is likely to be exacerbated. The Taliban is undefeated and waiting to reestablish the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.The Chinese offensive posture in border areas and the Indian defensive posture have created a dangerous situation for Indian troops on the Line of Actual Control (LAC). There is a clear military imbalance on the India-China border that needs to be set right without delay.

The increasing influence of India and its military support to Karzai’s regime raises serious apprehensions in the minds of Pakistani military leaders who consider it an extended regional threat.

Cyber wars pose a serious challenge to India’s national security as our traditional adversaries have an ability to cause web defacement and intrude into systems related to sensitive national security issues.

AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN REGION

The clash between the Afghan government and the Taliban is likely to intensify once the full responsibility of insurgency operations is taken over by Afghan National Security forces (ANSF). Pakistan’s hidden role in Afghanistan and proxy war against the Afghan government will tilt the balance in favor of the Taliban and the ANSF may not be able to defend Kabul in these circumstances without external assistance. In this context, Pakistan is greatly concerned about the growing cooperation between India and Afghanistan in the wake of American withdrawal.

Much to the discomfort of Pakistan, Hamid Karzai had permitted India to open consulates in Kandahar, Jalalabad, Herat and Mazar-e- Sharif, creating the fear in Pakistan that India’s influence will spread in these areas and will come in the way of its ambition of establishing the Taliban regime in Kabul.

The increasing influence of India and its military support to Karzai’s regime raises serious apprehensions in the minds of Pakistani military leaders who consider it an extended regional threat. India’s increasing footfall in Afghanistan is raising Pakistan’s fear of regional envelopment and revival of the idea of Pashtunistan, which Pakistan considers an existential threat.

The desire to establish a land of their own is deeply embedded in the hearts and minds of Pashtun tribes on both sides of the Afghan- Pakistan border. Pakistan fears that the Pashtuns of Afghanistan would readily raise the banner of a ‘Greater Afghanistan’ with the help of India.

The Durand line was created by the British in 1893 as the permanent boundary between Afghanistan and India, to divide the Pashtun tribes and for strengthening the western border of British India against Russian designs. It was never accepted by any Afghan ruler as a legitimate boundary; the sentiments on both sides of the Durand Line remain the same till today.

Pakistan has also been using home-grown terrorist groups against India and is likely to increase their strength in Kashmir to keep India fully engaged here after American withdrawal in 2014.

There is no doubt the Pashtunistan movement can put a spanner in Pakistani plans in this region and pose a real danger to its integrity as united Pashtun tribes would demand nearly half of Pakistan, including its vital Indian Ocean ports of Jiwani, Gwadar and Pasni. Pakistan cannot accept this as these ports provide Pakistan unhindered access to the Persian Gulf and add to its strategic reach.

The idea of Pashtunistan is totally unacceptable to Islamabad, and Pakistanis have consistently sought to undermine Pashtun unity to keep its northwestern frontiers secure. There have been regular skirmishes between Afghan and Pakistani troops in recent past all along the border at the slightest provocation.

To counter India, Pakistan has been employing Taliban and other insurgent groups as proxies to attack Indian assets in Afghanistan; it has also been using home-grown terrorist groups against India and is likely to increase their strength in Kashmir to keep India fully engaged here after American withdrawal in 2014.

In the meanwhile, ISI support and direction of the Taliban campaign continues in Afghanistan, its foremost aim being to help Taliban in overthrowing the government of Afghanistan after the American withdrawal.1

NORTHERN BORDERS

The unresolved border and territorial dispute continues to hamper a normal relationship between India and China; both have remained in an ‘engaged mode’ on the border issue since 1981 without any real progress. The special representatives of the Joint Working Group (JWG) have continued the talks for a long time, without concrete results. Even direct talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao in 2005 and President Hu Jintao in 2006 and 2008 did not lead to any breakthrough.

China has developed a sophisticated road network, which has enhanced its offensive capability against India.

The fact that the LAC has not been demarcated or delineated on the ground or on maps reflects the ambiguous position China wants to maintain on the border issue. This ambiguity about the LAC gives leeway to China to extend it further into Indian Territory. The LAC still remains a matter of perception; patrolling boundaries and ‘No Man’s Land’ remain undefined.

As a consequence, there have been frequent patrol face-offs in various segments of the border, highlighted by armed confrontation at Nathu La in 1967 and Sumdorong Chu valley in 1987. The situation continues to be tense on borders despite a no-firing agreement on the border issue. The unsettled boundaries pose a threat of armed confrontation between India and China in the future.

The Chinese today enjoy a definite advantage on the borders because of lax command-and-control arrangements and border management of India. The border on the Indian side is manned by a mix of military and paramilitary forces with separate command-and-control chains. The Chinese border arrangements, on the other hand, are based on a single, unified command that is responsible for the entire Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR). The dual command and control and the mix of military and paramilitary make India’s response to Chinese incursions difficult and ineffective.

Major infrastructural networks created by China in the border areas in the recent past stand in sharp contrast to India’s poorly developed infrastructure. Uneven infrastructural development and inadequate road connectivity affect the ability of our forces to block aggressive Chinese moves or to reinforce threatened sectors in time.

China has developed a sophisticated road network, which has enhanced its offensive capability against India. In the TAR, the Western Highway, the Central Highway and the Eastern Highway are highly developed communication systems, which are being regularly upgraded. The present capacity of these highways is estimated to be 7,100 tons per day. China has also developed four new airbases in Tibet.

The clear military imbalance on the India-China border in terms of command-and-control arrangements, weapon systems and capacity to build up forces on any particular front in the required time frame needs to be put right urgently.

China’s railway network is being extended to Shigatze and Yatung, reaching almost to the strategic Nathu La, and very close to Arunachal borders in the east. These railway lines, running close to Nathu La and the Arunachal Pradesh border, will enable the PLA to rapidly build up troops for offensive operations.

The Karakoram Highway (KKH) in the western sector has been greatly improved to provide better connectivity between China and Pakistan. Aksai Chin is also been connected by air.

The Chinese offensive posture in border areas in contrast to the Indian defensive posture poses a serious threat to India. The Chinese communication system provides easy connectivity right up to the Line of Actual Control (LAC), and a well-laid-out communication network in Tibet will enable China to build up large forces for offensive in a relatively short time.

CYBER WARS

Cyber wars pose a serious challenge to India’s national security as our traditional adversaries have an ability to cause web defacements and intrude into systems related to sensitive national security issues.

The exact nature of cyber threats is not easy to discern or counter in the absence of ‘tangible perpetrators’. India needs a strong framework to prevent attacks on the information systems, critical infrastructure and sabotage.

Cyberspace has been used by Pakistan for planning and execution of terrorist attacks. Fundamentalist and terrorist organizations have been making extensive use of cyberspace for command and control, propaganda and recruitment, training and funding purposes.

It was discovered some time ago that there was a Chinese variant of the Stuxnet worm in Indian installations. In December 2010, Pakistani cyber hackers were able to deface the website of India’s Central Bureau of Investigation, which is considered a highly secure website. After these attacks, the government of India developed offensive capabilities to break into networks of unfriendly countries. India set up hacker laboratories and a testing facility, developed countermeasures, and set up computer emergency response teams (CERTs). The National Technical Research Organization, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the Defense Research and Development Organization are now focusing on cyber security.

The new cyber warfare technology available to our adversaries can still disrupt data links, electronic devices and networks. Panic can be spread through social media to foment unrest by targeting ethnic or religious groups. Not long ago, photographs of violence in foreign countries and people killed in cyclones and earthquakes were shown to depict violence against Muslims in India to foment communal tension. These were followed by messages to threaten and scare the people from the Northeast in three major cities in south India, resulting in panic exodus of people of northeastern origin from these cities. These messages through the social media not only created panic and disorder but also created mistrust between various ethnic and religious groups.

During a war, sophisticated technologies can be used to misdirect fighter aircraft, missiles and other weapon systems to attack own installations and troops. Electricity grids can be disrupted to plunge big towns, hospitals and airports into darkness to create chaos. In a worst-case scenario, wrong signals to nuclear strategic commands can create havoc.3

False rumors of assassination of national leaders can cause despondency and create disorder in the country. Jamming of public information grid can bring civil administration to a grinding halt.